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Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whet
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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow . --Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks,
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Gandeste in pariuri. Cum sa iei decizii mai inteligente cand nu ai toate datele la dispozitie n Nici chiar cea mai buna decizie nu duce intotdeauna la cel mai bun rezultat. Intotdeauna exista un factor aleatoriu, pe care nu-l poti controla - si intotdeauna exista informatii ascunse. Asadar cheia suc
Bent Flyvbjerg is the first BT Professor at Oxford University and the VKR Professor at the IT University of Copenhagen, an economist, and the world's leading megaproject expert, according to global accounting network KPMG. He has consulted on over one hundred projects costing $1 billion or more and
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